Forecasting

thinking Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts Conditions in the away will continue in the future R atomic number 18ly perfect Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals Forecast accuracy declines as meter skyline increases Elements of a Good Forecast Timely Accurate trustworthy (should work consistently) Forecast expressed in meaningful units Communicated in writing Simple to picture and use Steps in Forecasting Process Determine decision of the forecast ready out a time horizon Select portent technique Gather and test the appropriate data fixate the forecast Monitor the forecast Types of Forecasts Qualitative o discretion and opinion o Sales force o Consumer surveys o Delphi technique Quantitative o Regression and correlational statistics (associative) o Time series Forecasts Based on Time back-to-back publication Data What is Time serial? Components (behavior) of Time Series data o switch off o Cycle o Seasonal o Irregular o Random variations Naïve Methods Naïve Forecast uses a single previous apprise of a time series as the basis of a forecast.

[pic] Techniques for Averaging What is the purpose of averaging? Common Averaging Techniques o pitiable Averages ! o exponential smoothing Moving Average [pic] Exponential Smoothing [pic] Techniques for Trend Linear Trend Equation [pic] [pic] Curvilinear Trend Equation [pic] [pic] Techniques for Seasonality What is seasonal workerity? What are seasonal relatives or indexes? How seasonal indexes are...If you want to get a right essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com

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